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1/24 – Brittany’s “Incoming Rain” Tuesday evening forecast

This is the time frame that will be looked at the most. A warm front will lift out of the bay and move over the area around noon today. This front will allow some sh/ts to develop in the afternoon hours. The environment will continuously change in terms of dynamics and kinematics. Values ​​starting this morning around 06.00, will be on the low end as far as shear and lift values ​​are concerned. But this will change to some very robust numbers 12 hours later. Any value you look at will be through the roof. This scenario would normally be a home run hit out of the ball park for serious issues. But the window will be tight to get this sfc based. The warm sector with CAPE values ​​at their peak will be in and around 600J over areas of the north coast, while those values ​​can reach up to 1kJ for some south coast areas, so we would have a high shear-low CAPE event. The next thing that is obvious is the near 1c inversion and near isothermal layer between 925 and 850mb. It is possible that this layer could cool as it lifts and the sfc warms just a bit, causing the line to become sfc-based shortly after 00z tonight. This would cause anything found rotating, whether minor or strong, not to reach the sfc until after 00z. Then it depends on exactly where the line of storms is when it happens. Dry air peaks at 700 MB and is also found ahead and moves quickly behind this line. This would cause very heavy downpours to occur along the entire line. Most of this wind wouldn’t reach the sfc until after 00z, but the gradient winds will already be quite high, so it wouldn’t take much to reach the sfc to cause a problem. This changes when the line can be sfc based around or after 00z today. Once most of this wind can reach sfc, the line should easily produce winds in excess of 50 mph. Momentum transfer could even be calculated to bring these numbers north. Again, this is mainly where this isothermal layer can be eroded. Very high rain rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour over about an hour may cause some flooding in a few locations, but the pace of this line will be quite high, so widespread flooding does not appear to be the main concern with this line. We are maintaining a flood watch for now as the main issue has already been highlighted. As the front clears the area, it will flush out dew points and temperatures quickly. Winds will be northwesterly and will remain moderate to strong in some areas before easing on Thursday.

Cool, dry air mass will remain over the area through most of the week, with the next best rain chances coming into the weekend with a new cold front moving through early next week.

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