Sports

Our best bet for raptors vs. kings

NBA Rivalry Week rolls on Wednesday night with two games on the nationally televised doubleheader featuring teams that are sure to be rivals in every way: Nets vs. 76ers (7:30 p.m. ET) and Grizzlies vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).

Our analysts go in a different direction for their best guess. They target three bets from two of the 10 games on the schedule and as a player prop, first half total and spread bet in those matchups.

Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Wednesday night.

NBA Odds & Picks

Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic

Pick
Magic -5.5
Order
BetMGM
Tip off
7 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: I’ve had this spot circled for the Magic since Monday, and their win over the Celtics further strengthened my belief. I have been high on this magical team all season and they are finally fully healthy and Jonathan Isaac will be back on Monday.

Isaac made an immediate impact on both ends of the floor against the No. 1 team in the NBA: 10 points on 4-of-7 shooting with two steals. Isaac further adds to the large number of unicorns the Magic have in their favor.

Between Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol, Isaac, Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. is this Orlando team absolutely loaded with talented bigs. This is a huge problem for the Pacers, who are extremely bereft of size and defensive ability in their frontcourt. Outside of Myles Turner, the Pacers play virtually no other bigs in their main rotation.

As a result, the Pacers rank 29th in defensive rebound rate and 27th in opponent rim rate. They don’t defend the paint well, which is a necessity against magic. They will likely ask Aaron Nesmith and Chris Duarte to try to guard 6-foot-10 players like Wagner and Banchero. It would be a complete mismatch and I fully expect the Magic to score at will tonight.

Plus, this is just a terrible spot for the Pacers — on the road for the second night of a back-to-back after an emotional comeback win against the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday.

I don’t rate this team very highly without Tyrese Haliburton. Since Haliburton went down on Jan. 11, the Pacers are 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS and rank 29th in offensive rating over that stretch. The only metric positive for them is offensive rebound rate (ranks second over that stretch). I would expect their newfound ability on the offensive boards to disappear against this physical Magic team that ranks 12th in defensive rebound rate.

I love this spot in terms of situation and matchup, and I play it comfortably up to -6.


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Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings

Pick
Domantas Sabonis o31.5 PTS + REB
Order
DraftKings
Tip off
10 p.m. ET
TV
NBA League Pass

Joe Dellera: The Kings take on the Raptors today and this is an excellent spot for Domantas Sabonis. He has been incredible this season and is finally getting some of the recognition he has deserved throughout the league. Love his props tonight against Siakam and the Raptors though.

Sabonis and Siakam are similar in the way they play, both can score, rebound and will also facilitate. However, Sabonis has dominated this matchup over the past few seasons. He has also recorded five consecutive double-doubles and one triple double.

Sabonis’ Points + Rebounds prop is set at 31.5 and depending on your book it could be 32.5. He’s accomplished that number in three of his last five against Siakam, but more importantly, he destroyed that number with a 21-point, 20-rebound, seven-assist performance this season on Dec. 14.

I prefer the Points + Rebounds line as opposed to Points + Rebounds + Assists in this spot because I think his assist upside in this matchup isn’t as significant due to Toronto’s length and ability to defend the other scorers at Kings. I think Sabonis will be a primary offensive option tonight.

Aside from his story against the Raptors, Sabonis has missed that 31.5 line in three consecutive games; however, he had exceeded 31.5 in 18 of the 19 previous games. I’ll back him to get back on track tonight against the Raptors and will take this up to 32.5 PR.


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Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings

Pick
First half over 122.5
Order
FanDuel

Munaf Manji: The Raptors and Kings meet tonight in Sacramento and I expect a lot of points to be scored in the first half.

First, the Raptors are 7-1 over in the first half in their last eight games, according to Bet Labs. TheKings are 8-1 over in the first half in their last nine games.

In addition, during the past five games, the Raptors and Kings have been first and second respectively in offensive rating. In that same span, the first half of Kings games have averaged 127 points and the Kings are allowing 63 points per game. match in the first half.

The Raptors are no strangers to high-scoring games this season. In fact, the Raptors are 10-4 over in non-conference games this season and are 13-8 on the road this season (per Bet Labs). I expect the offenses to be firing on all cylinders tonight. I love this number up to 123.5.


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