For the first time in forever, several blockbusters are actually contenders to win the best picture Oscar. But first they must be nominated.
Dark comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age drama “The Fabelmans” scored big at the Golden Globes, while sci-fi hit “Everything Everywhere All at Once” led the Screen Actors Guild pack with “Banshees.” But when the field for the 95th Academy Awards (airing March 12 on ABC) is announced Tuesday morning, “Top Gun” and “Black Panther” sequels are emerging as heavyweight contenders that could throw extra spice into an awards season that a little back to normal after a couple of pandemic-plagued years.
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While everything seems to be falling into place for likely nominees, it’s usually just when chaos is around the corner. Let’s separate the potential candidates from the contenders in the six major Oscar categories:
- Blockbusters will fight for the best places in the best picture field.
- It’s a two-way race in the Best Actress category and a talented trio for Best Actor.
- Supporting stars Angela Bassett and Ke Huy Quan are the easiest bets of all.
Best picture
The best: The producers and directors usually know what’s going on before the rest of us – the vast majority of their nominees make the Oscar cut. So expect shoo-ins to be “Fabelmans,” “Banshees,” “Everything Everywhere,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Tár,” all of which earned Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America nods. “Elvis,” with Globe, PGA and British Academy Film Awards nominations to his credit, also has a good shot, as does “Babylon,” which boasts a Globe and Screen Actors Guild ensemble.
The rest: High-profile PGA nominees “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” appear more poised to take the final three spots than the polarizing “The Whale ” Don’t count the love for Brendan Fraser. Other options include the popular Indian action epic “RRR,” the BAFTA-winning “All Quiet on the Western Front” and the SAG-nominated “Women Talking” — all of whom could be looking for a slot if “Babylon” (with its mixed reviews) or “Top Gun” falters.
Best actor
The best: This looks to be a three-way race between Golden Globe winners Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Colin Farrell (“Banshees”), plus “Whale” star Fraser, who scored extra awards season momentum with his heartfelt speech after winning the critics’ choice award. It’s safe to say those guys are locks, especially with Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: The past two Oscar cycles have seen the SAG and Best Actor Oscar contingents match up exactly, which is a boon for SAG nominees Bill Nighy (“Living”) — who also got a BAFTA nod — and Adam Sandler (“Hustle” ). Sandler still doesn’t have an Oscar nomination, so the Academy could see it as a career attaboy. But if they don’t, newcomers such as BAFTA nominee Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) await, as well as two Globe contenders, Diego Calva (“Babylon”) and Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”). ). Then there’s Tom Cruise, the face of “Top Gun,” who probably has a few voters rooting for him.
Best Actress
The best: Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere”) tore through awards season with Globe wins and SAG nominations, and the inevitable showdown happens at the Oscars because, barring some multiverse mishap, they’re with.
The rest: The other three spots are less obvious. Oscar winner Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) has put together a solid resume with SAG, Globe and BAFTA nods, and fellow SAG nominees Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) and Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) also feature in mix. Michelle Williams — who arguably would have done better this season as a supporting player — has a shot thanks to “Fabelman’s” momentum. Outside, Globe nominees Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) and Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) also look in.
Best Supporting Actor
The best: No one in Hollywood is as beloved as “Everything Everywhere” star/Globe winner/SAG nominee Ke Huy Quan these days for his comeback story and overall Cinderella mojo. At least one actor usually plays the table every year, and Quan is the top bet in this Oscar class. Likely to take up three more spots: the “Banshees” duo of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan, and “The Good Nurse” antagonist Eddie Redmayne, who each earned SAG, Globe and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: For the last remaining spot — or maybe two, given that “Good Nurse” isn’t exactly a major awards player — SAG nominee Paul Dano is in the running for “Fabelmans.” His co-star Judd Hirsch is also a possibility: The longtime Emmy-winning actor has only been nominated for an Oscar once, for 1980’s “Ordinary People.” Also in with a chance is Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”), who, like Hirsch, was nominated for Critics Choice, and BAFTA nominee Micheal Ward (“Empire of Light”).
Best Supporting Actress
The best:Angela Bassett directs Wakanda and so far the lead-up to this category, which seems to be the most changing field of acting. The “Black Panther” star took home gold from the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, plus scored SAG and BAFTA nominations. Kerry Condon (“Banshees”) and Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere”) – still seeking her first Oscar nod in decades. in the industry – are also safe bets, with each earning SAG, Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA nods.
The rest: What’s left is pretty much a free-for-all with a bunch of talented candidates. Curtis’ co-star Stephanie Hsu earned a SAG nom for her breakout role. Hong Chau (“The Whale”) wowed the SAG and BAFTA contingents, while Dolly de Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”) and Carey Mulligan (“She Said”) have Globe and BAFTA nominations to their credit. And don’t overlook Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion”) or Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), both Critics Choice nominees standout in acclaimed ensembles.
Best instructor
The best: Every year, four out of five DGA nominees make it into the category to an uncanny degree. In other words, things are looking pretty groovy for Globe champ Spielberg, Critics Choice-winning duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Martin McDonagh (“Banshees”) and Joseph Kosinski ( “Top Gun: Maverick”).
The rest: So who is the strange man? Probably Kosinski, as his best picture contender is the only one without any major award winners to date. Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) could take his place, avoiding an all-male field after two straight wins by female filmmakers. James Cameron has a puncher’s chance thanks to the box office success of his “Avatar” sequel. Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) or SS Rajamouli (“RRR”) could ride their way out of the wave of popularity for their films. But perhaps a surprise dark horse will emerge from the BAFTA slate, which includes Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave”), Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King “).
Read more about this year’s Oscar contender
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