2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Announcement: Date, Time, TV Channel, How to Watch Online, Prediction, Stories

The results of the BBWAA voting for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be revealed Tuesday night. Much of the intrigue in this poll will revolve around the chance Scott Rolen makes it, the gains from several players (specifically Todd Helton) and how Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán fare.

That The entire 2023 vote can be seen here. The Rules: A player is eligible to be included on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who receive at least 75 percent of the returned ballots from eligible BBWAA voters are admitted to the Hall of Fame. Those who fall below five percent fall off the ballot. Those between five and 75 percent can remain on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing and have been for at least 10 years may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players each year.

Regardless of what goes down in the BBWAA poll, there is already one new Hall of Famer in the 2023 class: Fred McGriff. He made it using The contemporary era vote held during the winter meetings.

Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:

2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Class Announcement

  • Time: 6:00 PM ET | Date: Tuesday, January 24
  • TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
  • Live streaming: fuboTV (try free)

Below are six storylines to watch for when the vote numbers are revealed Tuesday night. NOTE: When I mention “voting”, I’m talking about Ryan Thibodaux’s voice tracker (it’s not really a poll so much as collecting ballots, but this is the easiest way to sum it up).

1. Is this the year of Rolen?

Scott Rolen’s rise in the poll has a “when, not if” feel to it. It is actually more than feeling. Last month, I reviewed recent historical voting trends to show that the Role is very likely to come in.

However, it still matters whether it is this year or next year or the year after. First, from a human perspective, Rolen is certainly excited to get in, and if he just misses the cut, it’s another year of waiting. In terms of the big picture of Hall of Fame voting, it’s a spot on the ballot, and clearing them helps every other legitimate candidate. Remember that voters only have a maximum of 10 seats on their ballot, and some Small Hall voters artificially limit themselves beyond that. More simply, the sooner Rolen gets off the ballot, the easier it is for every other player to win — including next year’s newcomers like Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.

Polls show Rolen has a good chance of reaching the required 75 percent, but he appears to have a pretty decent chance of falling just short. He polled 71 percent last year, and the actual vote revealed him at 63.2 percent. Right now he’s sitting at 79.2 percent in the poll, and if there’s a similar shortage of private ballots, he’ll be just a few percent shy of making it.

Like I said, it’s going to be close. This is where most of the drama is for Tuesday night’s vote.

2. Still low numbers for A-Rod?

A-Bar has a polarizing case. We already know that. I strongly believe this is a big year in the voting for A-Rod. If he makes big gains, there’s a chance he’ll make the Hall down the road. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably end up in Bonds Land. I went much more in depth with the theory here.

The numbers right now don’t bode well for A-Rod. Polls show him up just two votes from last year (when he was 161 votes short of becoming law). It’s always possible there’s a cache of non-public votes for A-Rod, but there wasn’t last year. Right now, it looks like he’s going to get under 40 percent, and if that’s the case, it’s hard to see him making up enough to get up to 75 percent.

3. How does the license plate theft scandal affect Beltrán?

We’ve been able to get a general idea of ​​how the players linked to PEDs would generally be treated by the voting body for years. In Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, we have two all-time greats who never tested positive while testing, but were strongly linked. In Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we’ve had players who have posted Hall of Fame offensive numbers but tested positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.

However, we don’t have a good comparison to this voting body for Beltrán, and it could provide a roadmap for how things will pan out for Jose Altuve and others down the road. Here is my extended discussion of his case and the issue of the license plate theft scandal.

Polls show him about 15 percent over A-Rod at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltrán. There have been a few voters who have written that they withheld a vote for him this year, but would think about it again next year. If he can get about 50 percent of the vote, I would estimate he has a chance to get in the way. If he ends up closer to A-Rod, we’d say low-40s, he’s good for a long 10 years.

Aside from seeing if Rolen comes along or not, this is the storyline that will most capture my attention on Tuesday night.

4. Helton on the go

But what if Rolen isn’t the only player with a chance to make it?

Last year, Helton received 52 percent of the vote compared to Rolen’s 63.2 percent, but Helton has made significant progress. He has already received 32 votes and has actually pulled past Rolen, who sits at 79.8 percent. That would be a great leap forward, but it really seems like the voting body as a whole has warmed up strongly to Helton’s candidacy.

His is a bit of a polarizing case, but not because of scandal. He played his entire career with Coors Field as his home. I looked into the matter here.

If there is a big upset on Tuesday night, it will be Helton who becomes a Hall of Famer.

5. Keep an eye on winnings

Apart from those mentioned above, let’s keep an eye on the following players:

  • Billy Wagner: After jumping nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made more modest gains to 51 percent last year. Still, polls show him getting 29 votes this voting cycle. It’s his eighth year and a great chance, with all the ballots from the last voting cycle, to make a leap into realistic territory.
  • Gary Sheffield: After a big jump in two years to 40.6 in the 2021 vote, Sheffield stagnated to exactly 40.6 per cent again. This is his ninth year on the ballot, and he needs a big jump to have even a distant shot next year. The poll shows 26 votes so far, so maybe he’s on his way, but realistically the lack of progress last year doomed him.
  • Andrew Jones: Little more than an afterthought lingering on the ballot in his first two years, Jones hit 19.4 percent in 2020, 33.9 percent in 2021 and 41.1 percent last year. Now in his sixth poll, the tracker has him getting 24 more votes. It looks like he will top 50 percent or maybe even 55? If the latter is the case, he is well on his way to a possible deployment.
  • Bobby Abreu: He received only 8.6 percent of the vote last year, but has received 12 votes in the poll so far. This is his fourth attempt.
  • Andy Pettitte: In his fourth voting cycle last year, Pettitte received 10.7 percent of the vote and has received 13 votes this time.
  • Jimmy Rollins: He received 9.4 percent of the vote in his debut last year and has received five votes this time.
  • Mark Buehrle: He stayed above the threshold in each of his first two attempts (5.8 percent last year) and has received nine votes.

Wagner and Jones would be the big ones to watch, while it’s possible that Buehrle and Rollins will barely survive.

6. Who drops out?

  • Jeff Kent: It is his swan song; his 10th and final year. Even with a decent last year bump in polling data, it’s highly unlikely he’ll ever reach 60 percent. I detailed here that his case will probably do much better in committee and how this is a blessing to him.
  • Torii Hunter: Shooting just 5.3 percent last year in his first attempt, Hunter barely stayed alive. His public gains are modest enough to believe there’s a chance he’ll drop below 5 percent.
  • Francis Rodriguez: It’s the first year for K-Rod and it looks like he’ll survive, but it’s probably very close. The poll shows him around nine percent, but as a closer, my guess is that he loses some before the poll is revealed.
  • Omar Vizquel: It is very likely that he will survive. He votes with K-Rod, but the remaining Vizquel voters are almost all private. He got nearly 14 percent last year between ballot tracking and the actual voting results. However, he is still dead in the water as far as his chances of making the Hall are concerned, here in his sixth attempt.
  • None of the remaining first-timers on the ballot have received a public vote yet. They are Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, RA Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Other Ethier, JJ Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Johnny Peralta, Houston Street, Jared Weaver and Jayson Werth. Even if a few of them get a vote or two, they’re all one-and-done.

Of those facing the 5 percent threshold, I’d predict Hunter falls off while K-Rod and Vizquel survive.

The only other person on the ballot I have yet to mention is Manny Ramirez. He very likely remains in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He got 28.9 percent of the vote last year, and his polling shows stagnation.

7. Prediction

Back on November 22, I predicted this class would be McGriff and Rolen. I passed the committee vote with McGriff going in alone, so let’s go two for two to get the BBWAA a proper one as well. The role goes in and that’s it from this vote.

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